Show and Tell: Fort Tryon Park II Winter Story

Show and Tell: Christmas in New York

FTA

This is my attempt to understand the implications of the Free Trade Agreement between the U.S. and South Korea.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703814404576000770853479388.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews

Obama hails the FTA as a success, especially in creating new jobs.  Where will the new jobs come from?  Immediate attention goes to the bruised automobile industry.  However, I am not sure if Koreans are really keen on purchasing Fords and GMs over the European or Japanese brands, even if the American brands were $2000-3000 cheaper.  Rather, a major American gain will come from the agriculture industry.  My guess is that Koreans poised to tighten their belt in their own tough economy will guzzle up cheap American products after the tariff comes down (except for beef and rice, because they're supposedly protected).  Would this translate to more jobs in the States? Well, to the extent that the demand in production is met by seasonal and foreign-workers, there will be few permanent jobs created.  The American financial and investment sectors are also likely to see a boost, with less regulation on part of the Korean government.  This again may not give rise to a huge number of jobs, while large amounts of $ are expected to be gained.  High-tech equipment (e.g. medical and audiovisual) may sell more in Korea to the extent that equivalent technologies are not available in Korea.

It is hard to tell what Korea will gain from this agreement.  Tariffs on Korean automobiles imports are relatively low already and will be minimally impacted by the agreement.  Perhaps the Korean textile/apparel industry will see some light, but the last time I've seen a 'Made in Korea' apparel was a while back.  Korean consumers will buy cheaper produce and save some change, and Korean farmers will once again throw up their arms (or light a candle) in protest of Yankee goods...

Berlin

Had a chance to visit Berlin for a conference.  In terms of 'charm', it is no match to Paris, but its functional beauty and associations with historical events make it an excellent destination for tourists. 

First of all, the Subway is immaculate and easily navigable even for non-German speaking foreigners.

The Brandenberger Tor and the Reichstag are impressive monuments that witness important parts of Germany history that are not as salient as WWII or the Cold War.

Having stayed at a hotel in former East Berlin, I got to learn a bit about the divide between East/West Germany.  Germany became divided after WW2 ended in 1945, but even until the end of 1950s the Berlin Wall had not been erected, with East and West Germans moving across the border with relative ease.  1961 was when a first physical form of a 'wall' was established with barbed wires, which was reinforced with concrete in 1965.  The wall 'fell' (officially started to get dismantled) in 1989.  When it did, Rostopovich gave an impromptu concert.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiwXUJJjL6g&feature=fvw

Checkpoint 'C'harlie was one of the border control sites between East and West Germany before the reunification.  Guess an equivalent form in Korea would be 판문점.

It is truly sad that this beautiful city has to be associated with past as horrendous as the holocaust. A couple blocks south of Brandenberger Tor you can find the Holocaust Memorial.   Hundreds of concrete slabs are laid out like tombs in undulating formation.  Underneath this structure is a museum, which greets with you with this chilling warning, 'It happened, therefore it can happen again.'

'맛'김치 = 'delicious' kimchee

Much to my tastebuds' dismay, I am 5000 miles away from my grandmother's kimchee and I just have to settle for this store-bought brand called Tobagi 맛김치.  It looks something like this:

Google translates Tobagi (토박이) as "native"; but I think "authentic" or "original" is closer to the meaning.

맛김치is translated to mean "delicious kimchee".

... ...

Unfortunately, it's far from "authentic" or even "delicious".  Kimchee is supposed to taste sour from fermentation, but it seems the entire maturation process was skipped altogether. It tastes more like salted cabbage with pepper flakes.  People who know me well know that I like to indulge in kimchee when I am stressed.  Every time I open this jar I secretly wish that perhaps I was mistaken last time and hope that it'll taste better this time. Sadly I walk away feeling unfulfilled time and time again.    

I am sure that my grandma would shed a few tears if she knew I have to resort to this to relieve my stress... 흑흑...






*picture taken from this review, which was totally off:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/19/AR2010011902707.html

Eavesdropping in New York I

New York subway station.

A father and his young son eagerly wait for the A train, while other trains whiz by.

"Dad, can I say a bad word?"
"Umm... please try to use other words to say it."
"Well, I can't really explain it in any other way..."
"What is it that you want to say?"
"That train was really idiotic!"

Reminds me of the time I said, "what the heck!" for the first time in 2nd grade and I felt so bad I went to my mom to confess it before she even found out.  Unfortunately, she was napping and she couldn't care less what came out of my mouth.

NK 1: a new parameter

(Disclaimer: While I do have a keen interest in current events surrounding the Korean peninsula, I claim no expertise in politics or history of North Korea.  So, I apologize in advance for any misleading thoughts.)


Predicting the future of North Korea's regime is a challenging task for even the most learned experts of North Korean affairs.  Experts who had predicted an imminent regime collapse in the 90s were humbled by the unprecedented resilience of the current regime (the regime remains apparently intact today).  Perhaps because of this infamous prediction most experts are hesitant to paint any probable picture of North Korea's regime in the future.  Nonetheless, this has not prevented many from setting forth several scenarios.  From a layperson's perspective there are four (or some combination of):

1) Status quo: the regime remains intact unchanged
2) Apoptosis: the regime disintegrates slowly
3) Necrosis: the regime collapses suddenly (with inevitable 'debris' = unrest)
4) Differentiation: the regime transforms structurally and functionally

These scenarios have been debated to no end with analogies made to cases like China, Romania, Albania, Russia, Cuba, Germany, states that have undergone regime changes or failures.  I am in no position to judge how justifiable or informative these analogies and predictions are; all I can perceive is that there is a level of nervous uncertainty about future of NK as I try to illustrate in this diagram (the cloud being some expression of a confidence interval).

Recently, a new parameter has made an appearance in the prediction model.  Kim Jong Il's youngest son, Kim Jong Un [Un] has been appointed as the new successor to the NK regime.  This sent all the experts/journalists scrambling to speculate about how the NK regime will be affected by this unexpected and previously unknown factor (heck, they don't even know how old he is!).  What I can gather from the news is that rather than signaling a certain direction for NK's future, Un only adds to the uncertainty of the different scenarios.  Nonetheless, the new uncertainty offers some clues; it signals that some sort of change in the regime (as opposed to the status quo) is more likely than before, whether the agent be Un himself, or others, but that the direction of change remains uncertain with more stochasticity than before.

What this spells for the Korean peninsula is increased uncertainty, until more data on the new parameter can be gathered.  In the meantime, I just cross my fingers that 'necrosis' is not imminent.